Revolution in Military Affairs

Revolution in Military Affairs CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION â€Å"The Ultimate Determinant in War is the Man on the Scene with the Gun.† Rear Admiral J. C. Wylie, USN. 1. The notion of military revolutions grew from Soviet writing of the 1970s and 1980s. Early studies talked of a Military Technical Revolution (MTR), which is the impact of a new technology on warfare, but this quickly evolved into the more holistic concept of â€Å"Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)†, which encompasses the subsequent transformation of operations and organization. Most analysts define a RMA as a discontinuous increase in military capability and effectiveness arising from simultaneous and mutually supportive change in technology, systems, operational methods, and military organizations†[1]. Another definition is, RMA â€Å"is a major change in the nature of warfare brought about by the innovative application of new technologies which, combined with dramatic changes in military doctrine, operational and organizational concepts, fundamentally alters the character and conduct of military operations†[2]. 2. A revolution in military affairs involves big changes that occur relatively quickly and which tend to spread beyond the profession of arms into the realm of foreign policy. Historical examples include the onset of the telegraph and the rail-road in the last century, the changes surrounding in direct artillery fire, motor vehicles (including tanks), and aircraft in the first half of this century, and the advent of nuclear weapons nearly one half century ago. Now, the information revolution has paved the way for the present revolutionary transformations in warfare[3]. 3. Famous futurists like Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler have quoted that, â€Å"a military revolution, in its fullest scene, occurs only, when an entire society transforms itself, forcing its armed forces to change at every level simultaneously from technology and culture to organization, strategy, tactics, training, doctrine and logistics†[4]. 4. However a difficulty arises in understanding the current debate over the RMA because some use the term as referring to the revolutionary technology itself that is driving change, while others use the term as referring to revolutionary adaptations by military organizations that may be necessary to deal with the changes in technology or the geopolitical environment, and still others use the term to refer to the revolutionary impact of geopolitical or technological change on the outcome of military conflicts, with specific reference to the political and economic context of globalisation , regardless of the nature of the particular technology or the reaction of the participants to the technological change[5]. The difference in terms of reference leads to different suggested alternatives. 5. The first perspective focuses primarily upon changes in the nation-state and the role of an organised military in using force. This approach highlights the political, social, and economic factors worldwide, which might require a completely different type of military and organisational structure to apply force in the future. Authors such as RANDs Sean J. A. Edwards (advocate of Battle Swarm tactics), Carl H. Builder and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters emphasized the decline of the nation-state, the nature of the emerging international order, and the different types of forces needed in the near future. 6. The second perspective most commonly assigned the term RMA highlights the evolution of weapons technology, information technology, military organization, and military doctrine among advanced powers. This System of Systems perspective on RMA has been ardently supported by Admiral William Owens[6], former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who identified three overlapping areas for force assets. These are intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, command, control, communications and intelligence processing, and precision force to enable Dominant Battlefield Knowledge (DBK). Advanced versions of RMA incorporate other sophisticated technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), nanotechnology, robotics, and biotechnology. Presently the RMA debate is focussed on network-centric warfare which is a doctrine that aims to connect all troops on the battlefield. 7. Finally, the third concept is that a true revolution in military affairs has not yet occurred or is unlikely to. Authors such as Michael OHanlon and Frederick Kagan, point to the fact much of the technology and weapon systems ascribed to the contemporary RMA were in development long before 1991 and the flashy Internet and information technology boom. Several critics point out that a revolution within the military ranks might carry detrimental consequences, produce severe economic strain, and ultimately prove counterproductive. Such authors tend to profess a much more gradual evolution in military affairs, as opposed a rapid revolution†. 8. Moreover there is also considerable disagreement over the causes[7], the conditions that are necessary for them to occur, their consequences for warfare and the international system more broadly and, of course, over whether a particular development does or does not qualify for the label. Where one draws the line for what counts as an RMA will depend on the restrictiveness or permissiveness of ones definition of the concept. 9. Whatever the interpretation is, an RMA should fundamentally affect strategy and the role of the military in the international system, leading to a qualitative shift in what war is and how it is conducted. It should be a period of great acceleration of change that has far greater consequences than routine revolution, and which therefore demands specific attention. 10. But what is essential is that the ramifications of the RMA need to be understood not only by military officers but also by strategy planners, both military and civil. The military has to contend with information and space warfare, in addition to land, sea and air. The strategy planners, on the other hand, have to consider the economic, political, military and information aspects in their policy and decision making. CHAPTER II METHODOLOGY 1. A few of the types of RMAs of importance in the yesteryears and presently in vogue today include combined- system RMAs (a collection of military systems put together in new ways to achieve a revolutionary effect), single-system RMA (single technology, nuclear fission/ fusion, drove the revolution) and an† integrated-system RMA† (various systems, when joined with their accompanying operational and organizational concepts, will become integrated systems). 2. RMAs have risen from various sources, with manybut not allof them technological. Societal change has also contributed to a military revolution during the wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic era, in which the levee en masse allowed for the creation of larger, national armies. Statement of the Problem 3. To study the likely impact of embracing the ongoing information driven RMA on organizational structure, doctrinal precepts, tactical technological developments and the changes necessitated for effective implementation of this RMA. The lessons learnt by the US Army in this regard will serve as a useful guide. Justification 4. The description of the revolution in military affairs is neither definitive nor conclusive. The discussion is intended primarily to stimulate thinking in unique and more meaningful ways about how warfare in the twenty-first century may be fundamentally different than it is today and, of equal importance, evaluating what we should be doing now to prepare ourselves for that eventuality. 5. A number of changes must occur if any military is going to compete successfully on the battlefields of the future. There must be a change in outlook i.e. change in the way about preparing for the future. The military must nurture an attitude that supports free thinking and accepts honest mistakes, encourages experimentation, rewards risk takers, and makes provisions for starting over. As an organization, the military must break out of the box, consider alternative futures, think the unthinkable and let go of the conventional modes of operation. Statement of Objectives 6. While all concepts proposed by RMA analysts may be relevant, the issue needs deliberation in a more professional manner. That includes even the US by their own admission. The understanding of the various ramifications of RMA by the strategy planners as well as military officers would lead to certain questions: (a) What does RMA mean in the Indian context and what are its practical implications? (b) With RMA powered by the recent explosion in IT and keeping in mind our strength in this field how far ahead can we go and achieve the much-touted concepts of RMA? (c) What national posture do we need to adopt how should our national doctrine be formulated on RMA to include the three services, bureaucrats and other agencies responsible for national security? (d) Is reorganisation of the armed forces essential so as to respond and adapt to the organisational challenge posed by the emergence of Information Technology? Would it really meet the desired effect of flattening the organisation and shortening the various channels of command? (e) What should the pace of conduct of customised training for the Indian Armed Forces in the field of information warfare and operations be? Scope 7. The scope of this dissertation shall be limited to the impact of IT on RMA and changes required in view of the variance in views regarding RMA. The various implications on the Indian Armed Forces especially the army shall be analysed in detail to include various imperatives in the strategic, operational, tactical, administrative, organisational and training realms. Hypothesis 8. The present ongoing RMA has been ushered in by Information Technology. However there are varied views of analysists regarding the changes that would be necessitated for effectively embracing this RMA. This coupled with fixed mindsets has led to problems in effectively embracing the current RMA. In analyzing the changes required in the Indian context lessons can be drawn from the processes employed by the US Army, the first force to take steps in this direction. Limitations of the Research 9. An in-depth research on the subject would need face-to-face interaction with the various authorities in charge of national security i.e. the Armed Forces, bureaucrats, police, paramilitary and intelligence agencies. Owing to constraints limited information has been gained through seminars and discussions. Compulsions of confidentiality have also limited the depth of research. Methods of Data Collection 10. Most of the material has been collected primarily through secondary sources, i.e. various books, periodicals and magazines from the DSSC Library. Tertiary sources like various journals and reviews have also been referred to. Bibliography is attached as appendix. The other major source has been the Internet with the sites accessed listed at the end of bibliography. Organisation of the Dissertation 11. This study has been organised into a number of chapters as under:- (a) Chapter I Introduction. In Chapter I, the importance of understanding the various connotations of RMA has been brought out. (b) Chapter II Methodology. It covers the Statement of the Problem, Scope and Methodology of carrying out research for the dissertation. (c) Chapter III Current RMA Its Impact. This chapter covers the facets on which the current RMA is premised. (d) Chapter IV An Overview of Enablers Required for Initiating/ Implementing RMA. This chapter covers the imperatives for implementing RMA. (e) Chapter V Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Organisational Structure. (f) Chapter V I- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Technological, Tactical Doctrinal Aspects. (g) Chapter VII- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Training Aspects. (h) Chapter VIII- Case Study on Implementation of Current RMA by US. (j) Chapter IX- Relevance to India. (k) Chapter X- Conclusion (l) Bibliography. CHAPTER III CURRENT RMA ITS IMPACT 1. The current RMA includes the new tools and processes of waging war like Information Warfare (IW), Network Centric Warfare (NCW), Integrated Command and Control (C4ISR), System of Systems, all powered by IT[8]. The status of information has been raised from being raw material for intelligence to a level where it is now accepted as a tool, or even a new medium for war fighting. Information superiority has led to attainment of decision superiority. The lethality of information power is like any other power. Op Iraqi Freedom launched on 19 March 2003 was a major success essentially due to receipt of information in a short time frame. Establishing information dominance over ones adversary will become a major focus of the operational art[9] in the future. 2. The United States has led and maintains a significant advantage in the development of information- based technologies. This advantage is well grounded in U.S. military capabilities[10]. The roots of the U.S. militarys information-based RMA have been decades in the making. As information-based technologies and capabilities continue to mature, they have become much less expensive, and by their very nature, can be rapidly incorporated by other military forces to enhance their capabilities. 3. Information superiority consists of the integration of offensive and defensive information operations. Improved intelligence collection and assessment, as well as modern information processing and command and control capabilities, are at the heart of the current RMA[11]. With such enhanced capabilities nations will be able to respond rapidly to any conflict. Forces will achieve a state of information superiority, in near real-time, which will be pervasive across the full spectrum of military operations, enabling the force commander to dominate any situation. Velocity of battles would be speeded up causing a collapse of enemys command and control structures causing a rout essentially due to shortening of own OODA loop[12]. 4. The capabilities of the present RMA have yielded transformation of weapon systems, military organizations and operations through the integration of Information Technologies. When information technologies are integrated into a coherent system that includes modern weapon systems operated by highly trained personnel, they provide force multipliers to military formations[13], allowing them to perform more complex manoeuvres, to fire accurately at longer range and to experience a higher degree of situational awareness compared to their opponents. Information warfare can be anything from striking headquarters or communications systems with conventional weapons, hacking computer systems, conducting propaganda and psychological operations, or even to committing atrocities to instill panic in the enemys population. Dynamics of the Current RMA. 5. The current RMA is driven by three primary factors[14] i.e. rapid technological advance compelling a shift from the Industrial Age to the Information Age, the end of the Cold War and a decline in defence budgets. The transition is forcing a change in the way the military services are organized, how they are supplied, how they procure weapons and how they are managed, and, most importantly, how they think and fight. The extent to which the U S Armed Forces have accepted these changes, however, has been remarkable, particularly given that the draw downs, relocations, reorganizations and other fundamental alterations to the way they operate began immediately following a victory of immense proportions in the Gulf War; a victory which confirmed the tremendous progress made in rebuilding the services, especially the Army, after the Vietnam War. The Army is not only restructuring as it downsizes, it also is changing the very way it thinks about war. 6. The development of computers, satellites, and imagery has been occurring at an astounding rate, and there is no indication that this will slow down in the foreseeable future. The inference is that the future military will expand the ability to collect, evaluate and disseminate information relevant to the battlefield at a rate far greater than now. According to Libicki, future precision strike capabilities will mean that, to be seen on the battlefield is to be killed†. 7. Gen Shalikashral of the US Army realising the current RMAs importance gave the concept of â€Å"Joint Force 2010†[15]. This concept is basically aimed at giving a frame work for the application of RMA by US forces by 2010 to achieve â€Å"Full Spectrum Dominance† or total dominance. This concept is based on four pillars:- (a) Dominant Manoeuvre. It implies an operation from various dispersed points all focusing on one target. Dominating manoeuvre will deploy the right forces at the right time and place to cause the enemys psychological collapse and complete capitulation. (b) Precision Engagement. This means the engagement of the target with extreme precision by PGMs from land or sea platforms. For this accurate data collection about the target is very important to make the engagement effective. (c) Full Dimensional Protection. This is the ability to protect the forces including plans from any damage. This enhances the scope of what has to be protected. (d) Focussed Logistics. It means reducing the logistic load to only the essential requirement in shortest possible time, at the fastest speed and in the correct quantity. The RMA also enables to calculate precisely what is required, how much is required and where required. 8. The current rate of change suggests that state of the art in any technological context will be an extremely short-lived phenomenon[16], particularly with respect to the technologies that were key to the success of Desert Storm including space systems, telecommunications systems, computer architectures, global information distribution networks, and navigation systems. Future revolutions will occur much more rapidly, offering far less time for adaptation to new methods of warfare. The growing imperative in the business world for rapid response to changing conditions in order to survive in an intensely competitive environment is surely instructive for military affairs. Corporations repeatedly have to make major changes in strategy to accommodate the full implications of technologies, which have already existed many years. 9. Exploiting the Information Age. The armed forces must develop the essential competences in personnel to exploit new technologies and systems to the full and to ensure that leaders have the right skills to deliver and integrate information projects successfully. To help meet these requirements, there is a need to develop information age skills for everyone joining the armed forces. Efforts should also be made to increase opportunities [17] for personnel already serving besides increasing IT awareness training during initial training. 10. Many analysts agree on one important fact that the current revolution in military affairs seems to have at least two stages[18]. In the drive to limit military casualties, stand-off platforms, stealth, precision, information dominance, and missile defence are the first stage. The second may be robotics, nonlethality, pyschotechnology, and elaborate cyber defence. The revolution in military affairs may see the transition from concern with centres of gravity to a less mechanistic and more sophisticated notion of interlinked systems. 11. The armed forces no longer have to request scientists to develop a specific technology for possible military use. Quite likely, it will be the scientists who would be chasing military planners prodding them to use technologies that can now be converted to weapons much quicker than before through computer simulation, cutting development and production cycles dramatically[19]. CHAPTER IV An Overview of Enablers Required for INITIATING/ Implementing RMA 1. An analysis gives rise to the three dimensions of the RMA required for a nation to effectively implement it. First is the conscious decision on the part of a state to acquire all or portions of what might be termed an RMA complex. Second is the ability to acquire or develop the systems that constitute RMA-type technologies. Last, and perhaps most important, is the ability, organizationally and operationally, to adapt technologies in ways that bring into being the full military potential of an RMA. 2. Even though the revolution in military affairs has attracted some brilliant thinkers, systematic strategic discourse remains rare. Except for Andrew Krepinevich[20] and Jeffrey Cooper, few writers have attempted to place the current RMA in its broader theoretic and historic context. Moreover, the fact of change may be most dramatically manifested in combat, but historically the most profound RMAs are peacetime phenomena. Militaries are driven to innovate during peacetime by the need to make more efficient use of shrinking resources, by reacting to major changes in the security environment[21]. 3. Both the Tofflers, who identify only two historical military revolutions, and Krepinevich, who distinguishes ten since the 14th century, are suggestive of implementing RMA through major and minor revolutions in military affairs as under:- (a) Minor Revolutions. Minor revolutions in military affairs tend to be initiated by individual technological or social changes, occur in relatively short periods (less than a decade), and have their greatest direct impact on the battlefield. Minor revolutions in military affairs can be deliberately shaped and controlled. A minor revolution in military affairs driven by military applications of silicon-chip technology is already underway and the next minor revolution will be driven by robotics and psycho technology. (b) Major Revolutions[22]. Major revolutions in military affairs are the result of combined multiple technological, economic, social, cultural and/or military changes, usually occur over relatively long periods (greater that a decade), and have direct impact on strategy. Major revolutions cannot be deliberately shaped and controlled. The world is potentially at the beginning of one. 4. Enablers for revolutions in military affairs appear to follow a cyclical pattern with initial stasis followed by initiation, critical mass, consolidation, response, and return to stasis. Revolutions in military affairs can be initiated by one breakthrough power or by a group. In the modern security system, revolutions in military affairs are usually inspired by outright defeat or by a perception of inferiority or decline versus a peer or niche opponent. Revolutions in military affairs have a point of critical mass when changes in concepts, organizations, and technology meld. Once recognized, every revolutionary breakthrough generates responses. Responses to revolutions in military affairs can be symmetric or asymmetric; asymmetric responses may be more difficult to counter. 5. The greatest advantage for the breakthrough power lies in the period immediately following critical mass; thus, there may be a temptation to initiate conflict before responses can be effective. All revolutions in military affairs have a culminating point [23], at which innovation and change slow or stop, determined by the interaction between the revolutionary breakthrough and the responses, followed by a consolidation phase This may occur when leaders become satisfied with the military balance and will no longer risk radical change. It may also occur when costs of change are thought to outweigh the benefits of further expenditure. During the consolidation phase, superior training and leadership may be the only ways to achieve superior relative combat effectiveness against symmetric responses. 6. At times, a single state can initiate revolution by recognizing how to effectively combine various evolutionary developments, new ideas, and technology. Napoleonic France and the Mongols of Genghis Khan were examples of single state breakthroughs. At other times, there can be a collective breakthrough as when the European powers of the mid-19th to early 20th centuries combined industrialization, railroads, improved metallurgy and explosives, the telegraph, barbed wire, concrete, improved methods of government funding, nationalism, breech loading, rifled artillery and small arms, steam-driven, armoured ships, internal combustion engines, radio, increased literacy and public health, improved explosives, and the machine gun. 7. Always, though, the essence of the revolution is not the invention of new technology, but discovery of innovative ways to organize, operate, and employ new technology. Revolutions in military affairs begin when the potential latent in technological, conceptual, political, economic, social, and organizational changes that have occurred or are occurring is recognized and converted to augment combat effectiveness. In pre-modern, heterogeneous security systems, revolution was often initiated by states outside the system or on its periphery. Sometimes their advantage accrued from superior morale, training, organization, leadership, strategy, or tactics. 8. In the modern, communications-intensive security system, revolutions in military affairs have most frequently been initiated by a state within the system[24]. This is because fundamental change of any kind is difficult, even frightening; those who unleash revolution never know exactly where it will take them. Uncertainty as to the eventual outcome means that political and military leaders satisfied with their states security situation will seldom run the risks of revolution. Usually, then, only real or imagined danger can provide the spark. 9. Initiation of a revolution requires revolutionaries. RMAs are led by armed forces that tolerate and, at the appropriate time, empower visionaries. The decision to do this is a vital juncture in military revolutions. In the past, only a peer competitor could offer enough of a threat to empower military visionaries and dispel the miasma of inertia and petrified thinking. This may be changing. The military role in implementing innovative ideas is crucial. As one observer noted, â€Å"many important wartime technical innovations such as the tank, proximity fuse, and microwave radar, and organizational innovations such as new doctrines for submarine warfare and strategic targeting functions for American bombers, were pursued at the initiative of military officers or with their vigorous support.† What may be key to â€Å"winning the innovation battle† is a professional military climate, which fosters thinking in unconstrained fashion about future war. The other critical re quirement is the ability and willingness of relatively junior officers who are now out in the field and fleet to think about the future. They are likely to be in closer touch with new and emerging technologies, which have potential military application. As operators, they are aware of the operational and organizational problems that they must deal with daily and hence are prime clients for possible solutions[25]. Further, an offensive concept is vital for the implementation of RMA. 10. The most successful revolutionary states turn military advantage into economic and political dominance, but the transition is difficult. Being the first to understand or implement a RMA does not guarantee even military victory. A breakthrough state or coalition which clearly understands the RMA but which fails to develop an appropriate, balanced, strategy can-and usually will-lose to a state or coalition, which lags in understanding but possesses superior strategic prowess[26]. History is littered with breakthrough military states which ultimately failed, whether those of Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, or Imperial and Nazi Germany. 11. The course of the current RMA is not preordained. Key policy decisions made now will both affect the pace of revolution and the shape of the 21st century force that emerges from it. Perhaps the most fundamental choice of all concerns the enthusiasm with which developed nations should pursue the current minor RMA and the extent to which it should shape force development. Often this is not even considered due to the traditional approach to technology. Technology is respected, almost deified. There are sound historical reasons for this. During its formative period, many nations suffered from chronic shortages of skilled labour, thus forcing reliance on labour-saving technology. Eli Whitney, Robert Fulton, Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and thousands of other entrepreneurs and inventors harnessed technology in the name of efficiency. Reflecting this legacy, many nations have often evinced an unreflective trust in the ultimate benefit of technology. However, a reasonable case can be made that too vigorous pursuit of the current minor RMA is undesirable or dangerous, that the costs and risks outweigh the expected benefits. Budget constraints and the changing nature of global presence provide the broad context within which redesign of any military will unfold. However, it is to the technological factor, in the present era that basic judgments about force structure changes are attributed to[27]. 12. The utility of the current RMA[28], with its stress on precision, standoff strikes, falls off dramatically toward the poles of the military/technology spectrum. Opponents at the low end of the spectrum tend to operate in widely dispersed fashion and emit a limited electronic signature, thus complicating targeting. Their organization is often cellular, making decapitation difficult. If they are insurgents, they intermingle with the population. It is also important for successful implementation of RMA, the organizational enabler i.e. all important commanders, must be ingrained in military doctrine and practice failing which the RMA is not guaranteed to take hold throughout todays defense organizations. Second, unless the rational basis for the strategy is translated into an overarching vision, the RMA faces obstacles in the form of powerful, change-resistant bureaucratic forces[29]. 13. Enablers for RMA [30] need to be constantly viewed under the effect of the following:- (a) The political context. This is the breeding ground of war, and hence warfare. (b) The strategic context. The strategic context expresses the relationship between political demand and military supply, keyed to the particular tasks specific to a conflict. (c) The social-cultural context. Social-cultural trends are likely to prove more revealing at an early stage of the prospects for revolutionary change in warfare than missile tests, defense contracts, military maneuvers, or even, possibly, and some limited demonstration of a novel prowess in combat. (d) The economic context. Though wars are rarely waged for economic reasons, warfare is economic behaviour, interalia, just as it is, and has to be, logistical behaviour also. (e) The technological context. Warfare always has a technological context, but that context is not always the principal fuel for revolutionary change. (f) The geographical context. Military revolution keyed to the emerging exploitation of a new geographical environment has beckoned both the visionary theorist and the bold military professional. Imperatives for Effective Implementation of RMA[31] 14. Certain desirable features for implementation of RMA are:- (a) Design of a RMA force structure that would effectively use technology. (b) Technological development Revolution in Military Affairs Revolution in Military Affairs CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION â€Å"The Ultimate Determinant in War is the Man on the Scene with the Gun.† Rear Admiral J. C. Wylie, USN. 1. The notion of military revolutions grew from Soviet writing of the 1970s and 1980s. Early studies talked of a Military Technical Revolution (MTR), which is the impact of a new technology on warfare, but this quickly evolved into the more holistic concept of â€Å"Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)†, which encompasses the subsequent transformation of operations and organization. Most analysts define a RMA as a discontinuous increase in military capability and effectiveness arising from simultaneous and mutually supportive change in technology, systems, operational methods, and military organizations†[1]. Another definition is, RMA â€Å"is a major change in the nature of warfare brought about by the innovative application of new technologies which, combined with dramatic changes in military doctrine, operational and organizational concepts, fundamentally alters the character and conduct of military operations†[2]. 2. A revolution in military affairs involves big changes that occur relatively quickly and which tend to spread beyond the profession of arms into the realm of foreign policy. Historical examples include the onset of the telegraph and the rail-road in the last century, the changes surrounding in direct artillery fire, motor vehicles (including tanks), and aircraft in the first half of this century, and the advent of nuclear weapons nearly one half century ago. Now, the information revolution has paved the way for the present revolutionary transformations in warfare[3]. 3. Famous futurists like Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler have quoted that, â€Å"a military revolution, in its fullest scene, occurs only, when an entire society transforms itself, forcing its armed forces to change at every level simultaneously from technology and culture to organization, strategy, tactics, training, doctrine and logistics†[4]. 4. However a difficulty arises in understanding the current debate over the RMA because some use the term as referring to the revolutionary technology itself that is driving change, while others use the term as referring to revolutionary adaptations by military organizations that may be necessary to deal with the changes in technology or the geopolitical environment, and still others use the term to refer to the revolutionary impact of geopolitical or technological change on the outcome of military conflicts, with specific reference to the political and economic context of globalisation , regardless of the nature of the particular technology or the reaction of the participants to the technological change[5]. The difference in terms of reference leads to different suggested alternatives. 5. The first perspective focuses primarily upon changes in the nation-state and the role of an organised military in using force. This approach highlights the political, social, and economic factors worldwide, which might require a completely different type of military and organisational structure to apply force in the future. Authors such as RANDs Sean J. A. Edwards (advocate of Battle Swarm tactics), Carl H. Builder and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters emphasized the decline of the nation-state, the nature of the emerging international order, and the different types of forces needed in the near future. 6. The second perspective most commonly assigned the term RMA highlights the evolution of weapons technology, information technology, military organization, and military doctrine among advanced powers. This System of Systems perspective on RMA has been ardently supported by Admiral William Owens[6], former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who identified three overlapping areas for force assets. These are intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, command, control, communications and intelligence processing, and precision force to enable Dominant Battlefield Knowledge (DBK). Advanced versions of RMA incorporate other sophisticated technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), nanotechnology, robotics, and biotechnology. Presently the RMA debate is focussed on network-centric warfare which is a doctrine that aims to connect all troops on the battlefield. 7. Finally, the third concept is that a true revolution in military affairs has not yet occurred or is unlikely to. Authors such as Michael OHanlon and Frederick Kagan, point to the fact much of the technology and weapon systems ascribed to the contemporary RMA were in development long before 1991 and the flashy Internet and information technology boom. Several critics point out that a revolution within the military ranks might carry detrimental consequences, produce severe economic strain, and ultimately prove counterproductive. Such authors tend to profess a much more gradual evolution in military affairs, as opposed a rapid revolution†. 8. Moreover there is also considerable disagreement over the causes[7], the conditions that are necessary for them to occur, their consequences for warfare and the international system more broadly and, of course, over whether a particular development does or does not qualify for the label. Where one draws the line for what counts as an RMA will depend on the restrictiveness or permissiveness of ones definition of the concept. 9. Whatever the interpretation is, an RMA should fundamentally affect strategy and the role of the military in the international system, leading to a qualitative shift in what war is and how it is conducted. It should be a period of great acceleration of change that has far greater consequences than routine revolution, and which therefore demands specific attention. 10. But what is essential is that the ramifications of the RMA need to be understood not only by military officers but also by strategy planners, both military and civil. The military has to contend with information and space warfare, in addition to land, sea and air. The strategy planners, on the other hand, have to consider the economic, political, military and information aspects in their policy and decision making. CHAPTER II METHODOLOGY 1. A few of the types of RMAs of importance in the yesteryears and presently in vogue today include combined- system RMAs (a collection of military systems put together in new ways to achieve a revolutionary effect), single-system RMA (single technology, nuclear fission/ fusion, drove the revolution) and an† integrated-system RMA† (various systems, when joined with their accompanying operational and organizational concepts, will become integrated systems). 2. RMAs have risen from various sources, with manybut not allof them technological. Societal change has also contributed to a military revolution during the wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic era, in which the levee en masse allowed for the creation of larger, national armies. Statement of the Problem 3. To study the likely impact of embracing the ongoing information driven RMA on organizational structure, doctrinal precepts, tactical technological developments and the changes necessitated for effective implementation of this RMA. The lessons learnt by the US Army in this regard will serve as a useful guide. Justification 4. The description of the revolution in military affairs is neither definitive nor conclusive. The discussion is intended primarily to stimulate thinking in unique and more meaningful ways about how warfare in the twenty-first century may be fundamentally different than it is today and, of equal importance, evaluating what we should be doing now to prepare ourselves for that eventuality. 5. A number of changes must occur if any military is going to compete successfully on the battlefields of the future. There must be a change in outlook i.e. change in the way about preparing for the future. The military must nurture an attitude that supports free thinking and accepts honest mistakes, encourages experimentation, rewards risk takers, and makes provisions for starting over. As an organization, the military must break out of the box, consider alternative futures, think the unthinkable and let go of the conventional modes of operation. Statement of Objectives 6. While all concepts proposed by RMA analysts may be relevant, the issue needs deliberation in a more professional manner. That includes even the US by their own admission. The understanding of the various ramifications of RMA by the strategy planners as well as military officers would lead to certain questions: (a) What does RMA mean in the Indian context and what are its practical implications? (b) With RMA powered by the recent explosion in IT and keeping in mind our strength in this field how far ahead can we go and achieve the much-touted concepts of RMA? (c) What national posture do we need to adopt how should our national doctrine be formulated on RMA to include the three services, bureaucrats and other agencies responsible for national security? (d) Is reorganisation of the armed forces essential so as to respond and adapt to the organisational challenge posed by the emergence of Information Technology? Would it really meet the desired effect of flattening the organisation and shortening the various channels of command? (e) What should the pace of conduct of customised training for the Indian Armed Forces in the field of information warfare and operations be? Scope 7. The scope of this dissertation shall be limited to the impact of IT on RMA and changes required in view of the variance in views regarding RMA. The various implications on the Indian Armed Forces especially the army shall be analysed in detail to include various imperatives in the strategic, operational, tactical, administrative, organisational and training realms. Hypothesis 8. The present ongoing RMA has been ushered in by Information Technology. However there are varied views of analysists regarding the changes that would be necessitated for effectively embracing this RMA. This coupled with fixed mindsets has led to problems in effectively embracing the current RMA. In analyzing the changes required in the Indian context lessons can be drawn from the processes employed by the US Army, the first force to take steps in this direction. Limitations of the Research 9. An in-depth research on the subject would need face-to-face interaction with the various authorities in charge of national security i.e. the Armed Forces, bureaucrats, police, paramilitary and intelligence agencies. Owing to constraints limited information has been gained through seminars and discussions. Compulsions of confidentiality have also limited the depth of research. Methods of Data Collection 10. Most of the material has been collected primarily through secondary sources, i.e. various books, periodicals and magazines from the DSSC Library. Tertiary sources like various journals and reviews have also been referred to. Bibliography is attached as appendix. The other major source has been the Internet with the sites accessed listed at the end of bibliography. Organisation of the Dissertation 11. This study has been organised into a number of chapters as under:- (a) Chapter I Introduction. In Chapter I, the importance of understanding the various connotations of RMA has been brought out. (b) Chapter II Methodology. It covers the Statement of the Problem, Scope and Methodology of carrying out research for the dissertation. (c) Chapter III Current RMA Its Impact. This chapter covers the facets on which the current RMA is premised. (d) Chapter IV An Overview of Enablers Required for Initiating/ Implementing RMA. This chapter covers the imperatives for implementing RMA. (e) Chapter V Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Organisational Structure. (f) Chapter V I- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Technological, Tactical Doctrinal Aspects. (g) Chapter VII- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Training Aspects. (h) Chapter VIII- Case Study on Implementation of Current RMA by US. (j) Chapter IX- Relevance to India. (k) Chapter X- Conclusion (l) Bibliography. CHAPTER III CURRENT RMA ITS IMPACT 1. The current RMA includes the new tools and processes of waging war like Information Warfare (IW), Network Centric Warfare (NCW), Integrated Command and Control (C4ISR), System of Systems, all powered by IT[8]. The status of information has been raised from being raw material for intelligence to a level where it is now accepted as a tool, or even a new medium for war fighting. Information superiority has led to attainment of decision superiority. The lethality of information power is like any other power. Op Iraqi Freedom launched on 19 March 2003 was a major success essentially due to receipt of information in a short time frame. Establishing information dominance over ones adversary will become a major focus of the operational art[9] in the future. 2. The United States has led and maintains a significant advantage in the development of information- based technologies. This advantage is well grounded in U.S. military capabilities[10]. The roots of the U.S. militarys information-based RMA have been decades in the making. As information-based technologies and capabilities continue to mature, they have become much less expensive, and by their very nature, can be rapidly incorporated by other military forces to enhance their capabilities. 3. Information superiority consists of the integration of offensive and defensive information operations. Improved intelligence collection and assessment, as well as modern information processing and command and control capabilities, are at the heart of the current RMA[11]. With such enhanced capabilities nations will be able to respond rapidly to any conflict. Forces will achieve a state of information superiority, in near real-time, which will be pervasive across the full spectrum of military operations, enabling the force commander to dominate any situation. Velocity of battles would be speeded up causing a collapse of enemys command and control structures causing a rout essentially due to shortening of own OODA loop[12]. 4. The capabilities of the present RMA have yielded transformation of weapon systems, military organizations and operations through the integration of Information Technologies. When information technologies are integrated into a coherent system that includes modern weapon systems operated by highly trained personnel, they provide force multipliers to military formations[13], allowing them to perform more complex manoeuvres, to fire accurately at longer range and to experience a higher degree of situational awareness compared to their opponents. Information warfare can be anything from striking headquarters or communications systems with conventional weapons, hacking computer systems, conducting propaganda and psychological operations, or even to committing atrocities to instill panic in the enemys population. Dynamics of the Current RMA. 5. The current RMA is driven by three primary factors[14] i.e. rapid technological advance compelling a shift from the Industrial Age to the Information Age, the end of the Cold War and a decline in defence budgets. The transition is forcing a change in the way the military services are organized, how they are supplied, how they procure weapons and how they are managed, and, most importantly, how they think and fight. The extent to which the U S Armed Forces have accepted these changes, however, has been remarkable, particularly given that the draw downs, relocations, reorganizations and other fundamental alterations to the way they operate began immediately following a victory of immense proportions in the Gulf War; a victory which confirmed the tremendous progress made in rebuilding the services, especially the Army, after the Vietnam War. The Army is not only restructuring as it downsizes, it also is changing the very way it thinks about war. 6. The development of computers, satellites, and imagery has been occurring at an astounding rate, and there is no indication that this will slow down in the foreseeable future. The inference is that the future military will expand the ability to collect, evaluate and disseminate information relevant to the battlefield at a rate far greater than now. According to Libicki, future precision strike capabilities will mean that, to be seen on the battlefield is to be killed†. 7. Gen Shalikashral of the US Army realising the current RMAs importance gave the concept of â€Å"Joint Force 2010†[15]. This concept is basically aimed at giving a frame work for the application of RMA by US forces by 2010 to achieve â€Å"Full Spectrum Dominance† or total dominance. This concept is based on four pillars:- (a) Dominant Manoeuvre. It implies an operation from various dispersed points all focusing on one target. Dominating manoeuvre will deploy the right forces at the right time and place to cause the enemys psychological collapse and complete capitulation. (b) Precision Engagement. This means the engagement of the target with extreme precision by PGMs from land or sea platforms. For this accurate data collection about the target is very important to make the engagement effective. (c) Full Dimensional Protection. This is the ability to protect the forces including plans from any damage. This enhances the scope of what has to be protected. (d) Focussed Logistics. It means reducing the logistic load to only the essential requirement in shortest possible time, at the fastest speed and in the correct quantity. The RMA also enables to calculate precisely what is required, how much is required and where required. 8. The current rate of change suggests that state of the art in any technological context will be an extremely short-lived phenomenon[16], particularly with respect to the technologies that were key to the success of Desert Storm including space systems, telecommunications systems, computer architectures, global information distribution networks, and navigation systems. Future revolutions will occur much more rapidly, offering far less time for adaptation to new methods of warfare. The growing imperative in the business world for rapid response to changing conditions in order to survive in an intensely competitive environment is surely instructive for military affairs. Corporations repeatedly have to make major changes in strategy to accommodate the full implications of technologies, which have already existed many years. 9. Exploiting the Information Age. The armed forces must develop the essential competences in personnel to exploit new technologies and systems to the full and to ensure that leaders have the right skills to deliver and integrate information projects successfully. To help meet these requirements, there is a need to develop information age skills for everyone joining the armed forces. Efforts should also be made to increase opportunities [17] for personnel already serving besides increasing IT awareness training during initial training. 10. Many analysts agree on one important fact that the current revolution in military affairs seems to have at least two stages[18]. In the drive to limit military casualties, stand-off platforms, stealth, precision, information dominance, and missile defence are the first stage. The second may be robotics, nonlethality, pyschotechnology, and elaborate cyber defence. The revolution in military affairs may see the transition from concern with centres of gravity to a less mechanistic and more sophisticated notion of interlinked systems. 11. The armed forces no longer have to request scientists to develop a specific technology for possible military use. Quite likely, it will be the scientists who would be chasing military planners prodding them to use technologies that can now be converted to weapons much quicker than before through computer simulation, cutting development and production cycles dramatically[19]. CHAPTER IV An Overview of Enablers Required for INITIATING/ Implementing RMA 1. An analysis gives rise to the three dimensions of the RMA required for a nation to effectively implement it. First is the conscious decision on the part of a state to acquire all or portions of what might be termed an RMA complex. Second is the ability to acquire or develop the systems that constitute RMA-type technologies. Last, and perhaps most important, is the ability, organizationally and operationally, to adapt technologies in ways that bring into being the full military potential of an RMA. 2. Even though the revolution in military affairs has attracted some brilliant thinkers, systematic strategic discourse remains rare. Except for Andrew Krepinevich[20] and Jeffrey Cooper, few writers have attempted to place the current RMA in its broader theoretic and historic context. Moreover, the fact of change may be most dramatically manifested in combat, but historically the most profound RMAs are peacetime phenomena. Militaries are driven to innovate during peacetime by the need to make more efficient use of shrinking resources, by reacting to major changes in the security environment[21]. 3. Both the Tofflers, who identify only two historical military revolutions, and Krepinevich, who distinguishes ten since the 14th century, are suggestive of implementing RMA through major and minor revolutions in military affairs as under:- (a) Minor Revolutions. Minor revolutions in military affairs tend to be initiated by individual technological or social changes, occur in relatively short periods (less than a decade), and have their greatest direct impact on the battlefield. Minor revolutions in military affairs can be deliberately shaped and controlled. A minor revolution in military affairs driven by military applications of silicon-chip technology is already underway and the next minor revolution will be driven by robotics and psycho technology. (b) Major Revolutions[22]. Major revolutions in military affairs are the result of combined multiple technological, economic, social, cultural and/or military changes, usually occur over relatively long periods (greater that a decade), and have direct impact on strategy. Major revolutions cannot be deliberately shaped and controlled. The world is potentially at the beginning of one. 4. Enablers for revolutions in military affairs appear to follow a cyclical pattern with initial stasis followed by initiation, critical mass, consolidation, response, and return to stasis. Revolutions in military affairs can be initiated by one breakthrough power or by a group. In the modern security system, revolutions in military affairs are usually inspired by outright defeat or by a perception of inferiority or decline versus a peer or niche opponent. Revolutions in military affairs have a point of critical mass when changes in concepts, organizations, and technology meld. Once recognized, every revolutionary breakthrough generates responses. Responses to revolutions in military affairs can be symmetric or asymmetric; asymmetric responses may be more difficult to counter. 5. The greatest advantage for the breakthrough power lies in the period immediately following critical mass; thus, there may be a temptation to initiate conflict before responses can be effective. All revolutions in military affairs have a culminating point [23], at which innovation and change slow or stop, determined by the interaction between the revolutionary breakthrough and the responses, followed by a consolidation phase This may occur when leaders become satisfied with the military balance and will no longer risk radical change. It may also occur when costs of change are thought to outweigh the benefits of further expenditure. During the consolidation phase, superior training and leadership may be the only ways to achieve superior relative combat effectiveness against symmetric responses. 6. At times, a single state can initiate revolution by recognizing how to effectively combine various evolutionary developments, new ideas, and technology. Napoleonic France and the Mongols of Genghis Khan were examples of single state breakthroughs. At other times, there can be a collective breakthrough as when the European powers of the mid-19th to early 20th centuries combined industrialization, railroads, improved metallurgy and explosives, the telegraph, barbed wire, concrete, improved methods of government funding, nationalism, breech loading, rifled artillery and small arms, steam-driven, armoured ships, internal combustion engines, radio, increased literacy and public health, improved explosives, and the machine gun. 7. Always, though, the essence of the revolution is not the invention of new technology, but discovery of innovative ways to organize, operate, and employ new technology. Revolutions in military affairs begin when the potential latent in technological, conceptual, political, economic, social, and organizational changes that have occurred or are occurring is recognized and converted to augment combat effectiveness. In pre-modern, heterogeneous security systems, revolution was often initiated by states outside the system or on its periphery. Sometimes their advantage accrued from superior morale, training, organization, leadership, strategy, or tactics. 8. In the modern, communications-intensive security system, revolutions in military affairs have most frequently been initiated by a state within the system[24]. This is because fundamental change of any kind is difficult, even frightening; those who unleash revolution never know exactly where it will take them. Uncertainty as to the eventual outcome means that political and military leaders satisfied with their states security situation will seldom run the risks of revolution. Usually, then, only real or imagined danger can provide the spark. 9. Initiation of a revolution requires revolutionaries. RMAs are led by armed forces that tolerate and, at the appropriate time, empower visionaries. The decision to do this is a vital juncture in military revolutions. In the past, only a peer competitor could offer enough of a threat to empower military visionaries and dispel the miasma of inertia and petrified thinking. This may be changing. The military role in implementing innovative ideas is crucial. As one observer noted, â€Å"many important wartime technical innovations such as the tank, proximity fuse, and microwave radar, and organizational innovations such as new doctrines for submarine warfare and strategic targeting functions for American bombers, were pursued at the initiative of military officers or with their vigorous support.† What may be key to â€Å"winning the innovation battle† is a professional military climate, which fosters thinking in unconstrained fashion about future war. The other critical re quirement is the ability and willingness of relatively junior officers who are now out in the field and fleet to think about the future. They are likely to be in closer touch with new and emerging technologies, which have potential military application. As operators, they are aware of the operational and organizational problems that they must deal with daily and hence are prime clients for possible solutions[25]. Further, an offensive concept is vital for the implementation of RMA. 10. The most successful revolutionary states turn military advantage into economic and political dominance, but the transition is difficult. Being the first to understand or implement a RMA does not guarantee even military victory. A breakthrough state or coalition which clearly understands the RMA but which fails to develop an appropriate, balanced, strategy can-and usually will-lose to a state or coalition, which lags in understanding but possesses superior strategic prowess[26]. History is littered with breakthrough military states which ultimately failed, whether those of Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, or Imperial and Nazi Germany. 11. The course of the current RMA is not preordained. Key policy decisions made now will both affect the pace of revolution and the shape of the 21st century force that emerges from it. Perhaps the most fundamental choice of all concerns the enthusiasm with which developed nations should pursue the current minor RMA and the extent to which it should shape force development. Often this is not even considered due to the traditional approach to technology. Technology is respected, almost deified. There are sound historical reasons for this. During its formative period, many nations suffered from chronic shortages of skilled labour, thus forcing reliance on labour-saving technology. Eli Whitney, Robert Fulton, Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and thousands of other entrepreneurs and inventors harnessed technology in the name of efficiency. Reflecting this legacy, many nations have often evinced an unreflective trust in the ultimate benefit of technology. However, a reasonable case can be made that too vigorous pursuit of the current minor RMA is undesirable or dangerous, that the costs and risks outweigh the expected benefits. Budget constraints and the changing nature of global presence provide the broad context within which redesign of any military will unfold. However, it is to the technological factor, in the present era that basic judgments about force structure changes are attributed to[27]. 12. The utility of the current RMA[28], with its stress on precision, standoff strikes, falls off dramatically toward the poles of the military/technology spectrum. Opponents at the low end of the spectrum tend to operate in widely dispersed fashion and emit a limited electronic signature, thus complicating targeting. Their organization is often cellular, making decapitation difficult. If they are insurgents, they intermingle with the population. It is also important for successful implementation of RMA, the organizational enabler i.e. all important commanders, must be ingrained in military doctrine and practice failing which the RMA is not guaranteed to take hold throughout todays defense organizations. Second, unless the rational basis for the strategy is translated into an overarching vision, the RMA faces obstacles in the form of powerful, change-resistant bureaucratic forces[29]. 13. Enablers for RMA [30] need to be constantly viewed under the effect of the following:- (a) The political context. This is the breeding ground of war, and hence warfare. (b) The strategic context. The strategic context expresses the relationship between political demand and military supply, keyed to the particular tasks specific to a conflict. (c) The social-cultural context. Social-cultural trends are likely to prove more revealing at an early stage of the prospects for revolutionary change in warfare than missile tests, defense contracts, military maneuvers, or even, possibly, and some limited demonstration of a novel prowess in combat. (d) The economic context. Though wars are rarely waged for economic reasons, warfare is economic behaviour, interalia, just as it is, and has to be, logistical behaviour also. (e) The technological context. Warfare always has a technological context, but that context is not always the principal fuel for revolutionary change. (f) The geographical context. Military revolution keyed to the emerging exploitation of a new geographical environment has beckoned both the visionary theorist and the bold military professional. Imperatives for Effective Implementation of RMA[31] 14. Certain desirable features for implementation of RMA are:- (a) Design of a RMA force structure that would effectively use technology. (b) Technological development

Ikea SWOT analysis Essay

1. Customer knowledge: one of the key competitive advantages IKEA has the deep knowledge about the customer. The company understands the purchasing factors that influence customers to buy and implements the best practices to induce that decision. IKEA offers low prices and a huge range of products. Designers constantly introduce new design products that look stylish in the eyes of customers. All the products are designed so it would be easy to transport and assemble. Moreover, the company offers the widest product range and positive shopping experience. All of these factors are aligned with what customers want and need and which results in higher sales. 2. Constantly using innovations to drive costs down. Low prices are the core business of IKEA business idea and company always tries to do things as efficient and cost-effective as possible. To drive costs down all the time, the company must find new and innovative ways to do that and to incorporate them in its businesses model. The business’ innovations include new materials that help IKEA using the recycle material to become a friendly environment company or using the newest ways of packaging. 3. Supply chain integration. IKEA is committed to long lasting relationships with its suppliers. In this way, the company can order large volumes and benefit from lower prices and greater quality while suppliers are assured of guaranteed orders. IKEA sources its materials close to suppliers to reduce transporting costs. All the efforts of closely integrating supply chain results in lower costs and a competitive advantage. 4. Brand reputation and market presence. According to Inter brand, IKEA is the most valuable furniture retailer brand in the world, valued at nearly $US 12. 8 billion in 2012. The business operates 332 stores in 38 countries and is present in the major world markets. More than 600 million customers visit IKEA stores every year. Worldwide market presence and strong brand reputation ensures that customers will often choose IKEA over its competitors. 5. Diversified product portfolio. Unlike IKEA’s largest competitors, the company has fairly diversified businesses. In addition to its furniture products, the company operates restaurants, houses and flats. Although, firm’s main business is designing, manufacturing and selling furniture it is not so affected by the changing forces in this market as other furniture retailers. 6. IKEA uses cheap labor which keeps its costs down and gives them a competitive advantage. Starting from the days when it discovered that furniture manufactured in Poland was as much as50% cheaper than furniture made in Sweeden, IKEA has started looking for cheap labor. It top five supplying countries are China (21% of supplies), Poland (17%), Italy (8%), Sweden (6%)and Germany (6%). China, as everyone knows, provides really cheap labor so IKEA gets its largest chunk of furniture manufactured from there. Cheap labor keeps the costs down and allow them to charge customers low price and helps IKEA sustain its competitive advantage. (IKEA SWOT 2013 ) Weaknesses 1. Negative publicity. The company has been criticized many times for issues like poor treatment of employees, questionable advertising practices or lobbying government authorities. Negative publicity decreases brand reputation and customer loyalty. 2. Low quality of products and services. IKEA is unable to find compromise between continuous cost reductions while maintaining the same quality of products. According to UK Customer Insights report on IKEA by Verdict, IKEA’s customers are less satisfied with its product and services quality than the average customer in UK buying at other stores. Firm’s cost reductions lead to decreasing product quality, which was followed by higher number of products returned and damaged brand. Furthermore, the Ikea product lack of innovation like KEA designs the price tag first, then the product. IKEA’s product strategy council is so much Obsessed with low price that they spend almost no time on product innovation. IKEA has been enjoying sustainable competitive advantage due to their low cost strategy 3. Standard products. IKEA’s main competitive advantage derives from low costs, which in part are achieved due to standardized products. Standardized products attract fewer customer segments. Therefore, the business inability to offer better quality more customized products allows its competitors to fill that niche and fortify their position in it. 4. It lacks thorough market research on customers’ preference before entering into a new market. To provide a good quality product and also value the customers need and wants should be the organizational motto; this is because it’s a furniture company. IKEA did not do any sort of market research regarding customer’s needs and wants. So they should come up with a market research results that will give them more profit. > Furniture > Ikea Online > Strategic > Ikea Design Opportunities 1. Further expansion into developing economies. Retail markets grew by at least 5% on average in emerging markets in the last year, opening huge opportunities for IKEA’s revenue growth. The company currently operates in most of the developed economies but hasn’t firmly stepped into developing economies, except China. There are great opportunities for IKEA to expand into Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and Malaysia to increase its presence in these markets to sustain future growth. 2. Growing online sales. Online retail sales account for 17% and 4% of total retail sales in UK and US respectively. Online sales grow constantly and with 870 million visitors to its website IKEA could exploit this opportunity and benefit from increased sales and lower costs. 3. Expansion to growing grocery market. The current trend of eating healthier food has resulted in higher demand for grocery products in many developed economies. IKEA has an opportunity to expand its grocery business by introducing more grocery stores in its current retail places. The company is already successfully managing its food outlets, so this expansion opportunity would be well aligned with the current operations. Threats 1. Intensifying competition. Many low cost retailers such as Walmart, ASDA or Tesco are entering homeware specialists market where IKEA operates. These large retailers have similar specifics as IKEA, including low costs, well managed supply chain and huge market presence and can easily gain some market share from IKEA. 2. Growth of average consumer income. Growth of average consumer income means that people buy less low price and low quality products, which is exactly what IKEA offers in its stores. With the rising income people will be less attracted to IKEA and will turn to retailers that offer higher quality home ware products. ( IKEA SWOT 2013 ) Porter†s Five forces Analysis 1. Rivalry within the industry In Sweden there is handful of companies involved in the furniture industry. Moreover there are a lot of retailers in the market. The condition is pretty much same in USA. There are Home Depot,Wal-Mart, Costco and many other small retailers. On top of this many retailers import from china and sell it in the market at low price. This indicates that the competition within the industry is very high. 2. Bargaining power of suppliers It can be say that the bargaining power of suppliers is low. IKEA has a well-established relation with suppliers all over the world. Till 2008 IKEA has 1380 suppliers in 54 countries 21% of which are in China. Moreover IKEA also own manufacturing company like Swedwood Manufacturer. So it is evident that IKEA can threats the suppliers to enter into their business. 3. Bargaining power of buyers There are a lot of retailers who are directly involved in price war against each other. There are importers who are importing from china also in direct competition in the market. So the consumers have many alternatives. They can chose which manufacturers they will buy from. So the bargaining power of buyers is high. 4. Threats of new entrants There are no entry barriers in the industry. But the intensity of competition may scare off potential entrants. The required initial investment is not too much. Anyone can open a retail shop with small investments. But if someone wants to become a major player in the industry; than the firm needs to invest a lot of money, need to establish relation with suppliers, select suitable locations for outlets. These will require a lot patience and capital. So it is safe to say that the threats of new entrants are high if competitors want to do business for a long term. 5. Threats of substitutes Since the born of civilization men are using furniture. The styles are changing so as the trends. The industry is moving wood to plywood, rot iron even plastics. As the market is becoming more environment concerned many firms are giving slogan to go green. But the basic functional demand has remained the same. So it is safe to say that there are no threats of substitutes Opportunities IKEA can expand its product line by producing high end products From the very beginning IKEA’s target market has been the middle class to lower middle class people. This strategy has been worked for a long time but IKEA never wondered about how farther they can reach. In USA the trend was changing; people were getting thirstier for elegant design. IKEA can develop products that are designed for the high class people who are sensible about the design and quality and do not care about the price. For example Toyota: Lexus. IKEA can expand its business into interior designing and crockery products IKEA can expand its core business of furniture to a next level. IKEA can place crockery item swith the kitchenware furniture. This way when a customer walks through the kitchenware department he/she will be attracted to these products and may end up buying some. IKEA can go for environment friendly technology Customers now a days are now more concerned about the environment than ever. So IKEA can make products that are environment friendly; products that consume less water so the carbon footprint will be at minimum. Product customization can boost up IKEA’s sales IKEA can call for idea from its customers. This will definitely bring in some unique idea to the tent. IKEA can initiate a service that will allow customers to order customized products for some extra charges. This will help IKEA to capture the particular segment of the market who loves customization Threats Changing social trend can hinder the growth of sales of IKEA IKEA’s objective is to provide products to its customers at cheaper rate than the competitors. This objective does not recognize the necessity of a constant development of design and quality. In the pursuit of becoming a cost leader in the market IKEA can lose a major portion of the market that want quality and well designed products. Accelerated market competition in USA The furniture market of USA is very fragmented. But there are some well-established retailers who are selling functional furniture at a very low cost for example: Wal-Mart, Office Depot. These retailers will be in direct competition with IKEA. On top of this there are also some high end retailers who sell high-quality, well designed furniture. These high-end retailers often provide additional services like interior designing, home delivery and free set-up. The risk of global financial crisis The global is under a constant threat of depression since 2007. The whole economy of the world is suffering from a recession since fiscal year 2006-07. This economic condition may affect IKEA. Since the purchasing power of buyers has gone down they would be reluctant to purchase products that are not vital to them. This can cause a free-fall of sale revenue of IKEA worldwide; especially in USA ( Dahman J 2011). Reference Dahman, J 2011, IKEA’s Strategic Management, Scribd, viewed 12 October 2013,< http://www. scribd. com/doc/59951004/Case-Analysis-IKEA>. SWOT analysis of IKEA, IKEA’s Strategic management, viewed 11 October 2013, < http://www. strategicmanagementinsight. com/swot-analyses/ikea-swot-analysis. html>

Role of Human Capital in Economic Development

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION a)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   BACKGROUND Kenya is one of the less Developed countries that are endowed with relatively good levels of resources and labor. However, there are still a lot to be done to tap those resources into viable productivity and industrialization levels. One way of achieving this is by maximizing the use of both physical and human capital. In or case we shall consider human capital. Human capital, according to Adam Smith refers to the acquired and useful abilities of all the inhabitants or members of the society. The acquisition of such talents by the maintenance of the acquirer, during his education, study or apprenticeship, always costs a real expense, which is a capital fixed and realized, as it were in his person. Those talents, as it makes a part of his fortune, so do they likewise to that of the society to which he belongs. The improved dexterity of a workman may be considered in the same light as the machine or instrument of trade which facilitates and bridges labor and which, though it costs a certain expense, repays that expense with a profit. Therefore, the greatest improvement in the productive power of labor and the greater part of the skill, dexterity and judgment with which it is anywhere directed or applied, seem to have been the effects of division of labor. Other types of capital being equally important, they can be provided with ease if the private sector and the government, through public expenditure can use the existing human capital to develop and widen the capital stock base, both in domestic production and production of industrial goods. Human capital is therefore a vital factor of production, seemingly the most prominent of all the other types of Capital. Owing to increasing population growth in Kenya, labor is not a hindrance to development. In fact, people export their workforce to the United States of America through the famous Green card lottery. There is more than this in economic development process. Explaining why less developed countries are poor, Robert L. Heil Broner, the author of the book, ‘The Economic Problem, 1970’, said that these are poor countries because they are traditional societies, that is, societies that have developed neither the mechanisms of command nor of the market by which they might launch into sustained process f economic growth. He stressed that as he examines the less Developed Countries he gets a feeling that he is encountering in the present the anachronistic counterparts of the static societies of antiquity. He considered agricultural and industrial capital not to be the only reason for low productivity and economic development. To him, an endemic cause of low par capita output and inc ome lies in the prevailing social attitudes that are vital determinant of human capital development. Typically, people of underdeveloped economy have not learned the economic attitudes that foster rapid industrialization. Instead of disciplined workers they are reluctant and untrained workers. Instead of product-minded businessmen, they are trading-oriented merchants. It’s therefore very necessary to inculcate human capital into the economy of less developed countries. b)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM What exactly is the role of human capital and other social variables in economic growth and development of an economy? In the traditional neoclassical growth models developed by Robert Solow and Trevor Swan in the 1950s, the output of an economy grows in response to larger inputs of capital and labor (all physical inputs). Non economic inputs such as human capital or human health variables have no function in these models. However, the endogenous growth models developed by Paul Romer (1980) broadened the concept of capital to include the human capital. The advent of endogenous growth models with human capital (providing externalities) is argued to have enhanced the understanding of the mysteries of rapid and long sustainable high growth performance of some developing countries. However, to establish the point whether healthy human capital was one of the important factors in explaining the economic development for east African countries including Kenya, it will be useful to analyze the actual data on these variables across the countries. This paper therefore seeks to determine if, indeed, human capital has been the factor that has caused a rise in economic growth and development in east Africa. c)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   RESEARCH QUESTIONS ?   What is the role of human capital in economic development in east African countries?    Is healthy human capital and other non economic inputs are part of the determinants of economic growth in east African countries? d)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ?  To find out the role of human capital in economic development in east African countries. ?  To determine whether healthy human capital and other non economic inputs are part of the determinants of economic growth in east African countries. e)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY This study is seeking to establish the relationship between human capital and economic growth and development in east Africa. By so doing, we will be able to know with certainty whether human capital is actually one of the reasons for economic growth in east Africa, in which case the findings will be used to establish the right proportion of human capital needed to mix with other economic inputs so as to facilitate sustainable economic development in the region. It also gives an indication of the possible way to rate human capital against other inputs to the economic development of east African community. The findings of this study will help the implementation process of the east African development goals and objectives. This will be possible given the evidence of the role of human capital in economic development, as established in this study. Furthermore, this study will also shed light to east African states on whether to put much reliability on social amenities such as hospitals, schools and churches. If the study finds a positive relationship between human capital and economic development, then it is left with no much option but to improve on its social amenities and allocate more of its resources to the same. CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW In this chapter, we will first consider past theories regarding the field of the study. This is to appreciate the various aspects that are of significance in our study as has been developed in theories. In the traditional neoclassical models developed by Robert Solow and Trevor Swan in the 1950s, the output of an economy grows in response to larger inputs of capital and labor (all physical inputs). Non economic variables such as human capital or human health variables have o function in these models. Furthermore, the economy under such a model conforms to the law of diminishing returns to scale. With these assumptions, the neoclassical growth models afford some implications to the economy; particularly that as capital stock increases, growth of economy slows down, and in order to keep the economy growing it must capitalize from the infusions of technological progress. It is well known that this type of mechanism is the neoclassical model is neither inherent nor does it strive to explain much. In economic lexicon, this simply means that the technological progress is exogenous to the system. Yet the reality is quite contrary to that, especially in East African countries which kept over the years. This implies that it is not only technology which is the main driving force accountable for maintaining such high growth performance in the economies but there are other factors which are outside the realm of neoclassical growth model. Addressing the above issues, in the mid 1980’s, a new paradigm was developed in literature, mostly due to the Paul Romer (1986), which is now commonly known as Endogenous growth models. By broadening the concept of capital to include human capital, the new endogenous growth model argues that the law of diminishing returns to scale phenomenon may not be true as is the case for developing countries. In simple terms, what this means is that if the firm which invests in capital also employs educated and skilled workers who are also healthy , then not only will the labor be productive but it will also be able to use capital and technology more efficiently. This will lead to the so-called ‘hicks neutral’ shift in the production function and thus there can be an increasing rather than decreasing returns to investment. In other words, technology and human capital are both endogenous to the system. Indeed, the advent of endogenous growth models with human capital (improving externalities) have certainly enhanced the understanding of the mysteries of rapid and long sustainable high growth performance of east African economies. Julie Turcotte & Lori Whelwel Reninson also studied on technology and human capital. They examined the effects of education, training and technology use on productivity and wages at firm level. They made innovative use of statistics in Canada’s orkplace and employee survey, which allows the linking of characteristics of workers in a firm to firm performance measures. They found that productivity is higher; the intensively the technology is used in the firm, the greater the proportion of university educated workers, the greater the participation of workers in training programs the greater the proportion of workers who get computer training the greater the firm’s ex port orientation. A key finding with important policy implications is that computer skills training can augment the qualifications of low skilled workers and consequently boost firm productivity. From the theories, therefore, we can correctly postulate that human capital has a role to play in economic development of any nation, especially the developing ones like the east African countries; Kenya Uganda and Tanzania. CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The methodology of carrying out this research is ideally dependent on the various aspects of human aspects such as human health, education and training. In regard to health, we shall consider the mortality rates of the three countries under study. This study will then seek to show the relationship between mortality rates and the level of economic development in the three countries. In respect to education and training, this study will use the level of education and other skills acquired through training. It will then determine the relationship between education and training and economic development for each of the three countries under study. Finally, this study will establish the overall impact of the different trends in education, training and health on economic development of each of the three countries. If we find that there is a positive relationship, then we shall be able to conclude that human capital has a role to play in economic growth and development. On the other hand, if there is a negative relationship, then we dismiss the possibility of human capital playing a role in economic development. RESEARCH MODEL The research model to be developed in this study is that which considers economic growth given by output (y) as a function of both labor and capital, but puts much emphasis on human rather than physical capital. We shall first consider the cob Douglass function given by; Q=Af (L, K): where Q is the level of output, K is the level of capital, L is labor and A is technology. Now, if we assume that the amount of labor is sufficiently provided and that technology is constant, then capital will be the determinant factor in production. If we break down capital into fixed Physical capital and human capital we get; Q=Af (L,Kp,Kh): where Kp refers to physical capital and Kh refers to human capital. Therefore, output is directly related to human capital, and we have to prove this in our study by using relevant variables. DESCRIPTION AND MEASUREMENTS OF VARIABLES The variables to be used in this model will be the two major determinants of human capital. In order t explain the point whether healthy human capital is one of the important factors in explaining the economic development for east African countries, it will be useful to analyze the actual data on these variables across the countries. Although there are many variables that can represent human capital and healthy conditions of the people of a nation, to keep the analysis simple while, at the same time, capturing the basic broad thrust of these two variables, this paper will focus on total literacy rate and life expectancy at birth. Total literacy rate will give us an overview of what we expect as the overall level of education and skill development, while life expectancy at birth will determine the level of health among the citizens of a nation. This gives the overall level of human capital which we shall relate to the level of output, growth and economic development. Life expectancy at birth refers to a measure of overall quality of life in a country and summarizes the mortality at all ages. It can also be thought of as indicating the potential return on investment in human capital and is necessary for the calculation of various actuarial measures. This entry contains the average number of years to be lived by a group of people born in the same year, if mortality at each age remains constant in the future. Literacy rate on the other hand includes a definition of literacy and census bureau percentages for the total populations; males and females. There are no universal definitions and standards of literacy. Unless otherwise stated, all rates are based on the most common definition – the ability to read and write at a specified age. Information on literacy, while not a perfect measure of educational results, is probably the most easily available and valid for international comparisons. Low levels of literacy and education in general can impede the economic development of a country in the current rapidly changing, technology-driven world. SOURCES AND TYPES OF DATA The sources of data in our study are basically the internet, lecture notes, library books and journals and magazines. We shall use available data relating to the life expectancy rates and literacy rates from the internet, government documentaries and articles. We shall also use lecture notes and library books to get the theories of scholars and adopt them in our study. The types of data will be of secondary nature. It will involve data of theories, findings by other individuals or groups, established models and empirical studies. It will also include government documentaries and public opinions as established in secondary data. DATA ANALYSIS In analyzing the data, we shall first quantify the value of each variable using the appropriate society preference schedule. We then tabulate the results, establish the graphs, evaluate the results, interpret and draw conclusions. In summary, the data analysis will involve a systematic process of putting the variables into quantifiable statistics, evaluating them, interpreting and making conclusions. This will include the use of both geometric and mathematical analysis. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY This study will be carried out within Kenyatta university premises in a period not less than three months and not more than four. It will include visits to the library, use of Kenyatta university computers, discussions with Kenyatta university students especially from the school of economics and also consulting lecture notes, perhaps in the study room or in the hostels. There are some limitations to this study just like any other kind of study. First is the intermittent network failure in the school computers. There is also the problem of inadequate books in the library and the school policy not to allow undergraduate students to access research materials from the Africana section of the library. Worse still, is the problem of shallow coverage of the syllabus content by lecturers and the students’ tendency not to cooperate in discussions. CHAPTER FOUR INTRODUCTION The world today is very different from the one which experienced the two world wars. During the second half of the Twentieth century, considerable advancements in science and Technology, along with the establishment of broadly-based Governments and strengthening of institutions, have led to significant Socio-economic progress and improvement in the lives of a large number of people in many countries. However, there are still many others among us who are lagging behind. The current reality in the East African region is the existence of significant differences in the state of economic development among countries. For instance, when GNP per capita income is taken as an indicator of economic development (see figure 1. 1), the figures for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Fig 1. 1 1999 | KENYA 1600 | UGANDA 1060 | TANZANIA 550 | 2000 | 1500 | 1100 | 710 | 2001 | 1000 | 1200 | 610 | 2002 | 1020 | 1260 | 630 | 003 | 1000 | 1400 | 600 | 2004 | 1100 | 1500 | 700 | 2005 | 1100 | 1800 | 700 | 2006 | 1200 | 1900 | 800 | 2007 | 1700 | 1000 | 1300 | 2008 | 1600 | 1300 | 1300 | 2009 | 1600 | 1200 | 1400 | 2010 | 1600 | 1300 | 1400 | Given the vastly divergent economic development among the three countries, it would be a common myth to presume that the discrepancy in development is somehow inherited by the respective groups of countries. Contrary to this general perception, it is quite an enigma to note that, this had not been the case in the past. In fact, figure 1. 1 distinctly shows that economic development measured in terms of GNP per capita in the early 2000 for these countries except Kenya was quite similar and comparable to the extent that they were below 1200 USD mark. In light of the above, the pertinent question is: what factors led to this exceptional economic development for some countries (i. e. , East African developing countries) in the last three decades? Obviously, the factors could be numerous, ranging from social to cultural, from economic policies to institution development, geographic location to opportune time. In this paper, however, rather than focusing on all these factors together, which of course is beyond the scope of this study, only the socio-economic factors, particularly the human capital dimensions, are briefly investigated across the group of countries to establish the possible role and linkage of human capital with economic development. HUMAN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT In inspecting the total literacy rate data for various East African countries in figure 1. 2, it is intriguing to note that even in the 1990s when most of these countries were at similar stages of economic development, Kenya was far ahead of both Uganda and Tanzania. In fact, the total literacy rates for Kenya in 1995 was as high as 78. 1 per cent, 67. 8 per cent for Tanzania and even Uganda had a rate of over 61. 8 per cent. After three decades, while Kenya and Tanzania have somewhat ameliorated their human capital, the total literacy rates are still far below 70 per cent in the case of Uganda as shown in figure 1. . During the same period, however, Kenya and Tanzania have more or less achieved the formidable task of educating most of their people. As a result, in the late 2003, the total literacy rate of the Republic of Kenya has reached 85. 1 per cent and Tanzania managed to achieve a rate of about 78. 2 per cent. Fig 1. 2 | KENYA | UGANDA | TANZANIA | 1995 | 78. 1 | 61. 8 | 67. 8 | 2000 | | 62. 7 | | 2002 | | 66. 8 | 69. 4 | 2003 | 85. 1 | 69. 9 | 78. 2 | Analyzing the health variable measured in terms of life expectancy at birth across the three groups of countries in the East African region, like the literacy rate, again a similar sort of pattern is evident among these countries. For instance, in 2000, all East African countries had a Life expectancy at birth below 50 years except Tanzania with Uganda having a figure of even much less than 45 years as shown in figure I. 3. On the other hand, during the same period, Tanzania had a life expectancy at birth well over 50 per cent with the Republic of Kenya having a figure almost 50 years (47. 98 years). In 2011, although East African countries enhanced their life expectancy to a level of over 50 years, Tanzania and Uganda, in this context, is far more stagnant, as shown in figure 1. 3. In the case of Kenya, the life expectancy rate is now in the order of over 55 years. Fig 1. 3 | KENYA | UGANDA | TANZANIA | 2000 | 47. 98 | 42. 93 | 52. 26 | 2001 | 47. 49 | 43. 37 | 51. 98 | 2002 | 47. 02 | 43. 81 | 51. 7 | 2003 | 45. 22 | 44. 88 | 44. 56 | 2004 | 44. 94 | 45. 28 | 44. 39 | 2005 | 47. 99 | 51. 59 | 45. 24 | 2006 | 48. 3 | 52. 67 | 45. 64 | 2007 | 55. 31 | 51. 75 | 50. 71 | 2008 | 56. 64 | 52. 34 | 51. 45 | 2009 | 57. 86 | 52. 72 | 52. 01 | 2010 | 58. 82 | 52. 98 | 52. 49 | 2011 | 59. 48 | 53. 24 | 52. 85 | What can one infer from the discussions so far? First of all, the empirical data overwhelmingly incarnate that, in the past decade, the three East African countries considered in this paper started with a similar state of economic development but now, in 2011, there is a marked dif ference among them on account of their per capita incomes. Kenya is now well beyond the reach of Uganda and Tanzania in 2011 in terms of economic development. Tanzania, on the other hand, is overtaking Uganda as depicted by the economic growth in terms of GDP per capita in 2011 in fig. 1. 2. Secondly, although in terms of per capita income all these countries were quite comparable in the early 2000, nevertheless, in the context of human capital and health sector development, there were huge differences among them; Kenya and Tanzania were, by far, ahead of Uganda. In the 1990s, most Kenya’s population were literate while Uganda and Tanzania still had a long way to go. Thirdly, based on the facts presented earlier, it is evident that the onslaught of East Africa developing countries’ rapid economic progress in the 1990s occurred along with their reasonably well developed and healthy human capital endowment which started to take momentum in the 1960s or even earlier. It is the view of the author that, for human capital to spawn a perceptible impact on economic development, a nation needs to have a minimum captious mass of at least 70 per cent or more literate population. What this means is that if an overwhelmingly large number of people in a country are literate, even with simple basic education as being able to read newspapers, this may open up the minds of the masses, possibly make them more enlightened workers and perhaps institute some element of discipline in them. These are, of course, some of the essential prerequisites for a large organized production to run efficiently and for leading to rapid growth. Through mass literacy, better prepared healthy workers and conducive investment friendly government policies, Kenya and Tanzania seem to have been able to furnish those essential elements of rapid growth at the very early stages of their development. And, therefore, at the dawn of globalization in the early 1980s, Kenya and Tanzania were befittingly prepared to attract large sums of foreign investments thus accomplishing rapid economic progress. On the other hand, during the same period, unfortunately Uganda was neither primed in terms of human capital endowments t large nor were its government investment policies responsive enough to allure foreign investors in sizeable quantities to trigger rapid economic growth. Thus, in a mere two decades, Uganda lagged far behind Tanzania and Kenya to the extent that any catching up in the near future by the former country to the level of the latter countries would be a very challenging onus. As shown by the GDPs per capita, Kenya still maintain s its High level of 1600 USD as it was in 1999 and Tanzania has rose fast to 1400 USD from 550 USD of 1999. On the other hand, Uganda seems to stagnate around 1300 USD. These results are due to the well developed human capital base depicted by literacy rates and life expectancies of Kenya and Tanzania in figures 1. 3 and 1. 4 respectively. What led to the divergence in human capital among nations? As demonstrated above, a well developed human capital base of a nation played an important role in economic development and, on this count, Kenya and Tanzania were far ahead of Uganda even at the early stages of economic development. A germane public policy question, in this context, is how Kenya and Tanzania managed to delude such a well developed human capital base as compared to Uganda even when the per capita incomes for all these countries were rather similar as shown earlier. In other words, for all practical purposes, in the 1990s, all these groups of nations could be contemplated as equally rich or equally poor, yet in terms of human capital development they were distant apart from each other. What led to this significant divergence in the human capital development among these groups of countries? This study argues that it is the direction of a nation’s priorities and commitments measured in terms of actual resources devoted towards the education sector that led to such differences in human capital among the groups of countries. Since independence and now in the new millennium, however, the disparities in per capita expenditure on both education and health between the three countries are staggering. For instance, data from CIA world fact book shows that the Kenya’s government spending on education as a percentage of GDP in 2006 was 7%. Uganda’s spending on education as a percentage of GDP was 3. 2% in 2009 while that of Tanzania in 2008 was 6. 8%. The world fact book’s data government’s spending on health in the last decade also shows that Kenya spends more as a percentage of GDP as compared to Tanzania and Uganda. Kenya’s spending was 12. 2%, Uganda’s spending was 8. % while that of Tanzania was 5. 1%. These data show that Kenya spends more of its GDP on health and education than any other east African country. Therefore, it is correct to say that a country which is committed to providing education and good health to its citizens is able to make use of its human development in an economically productive manner, hence raising its GDP per capita and its economic growth and development. CHAPTER FIVE GESTATION PERIOD FOR HUMAN CAPITAL INVES TMENT Given the acceptation of human capital investments towards Economic development, a pertinent question is whether the time taken or the gestation period of such investments to proliferate intended Impact in terms of literate skilled workers is comparable to that of physical infrastructure investments such as roads, highways and hydroelectric dams. It needs to be underscored that, while the physical infrastructure investments may ordinarily take a long time to be completed, however, the impact period for human capital investments could be even longer if it is to forge results. Not only that, while it may even be possible to abbreviate the gestation period of physical infrastructure investment by apportioning more resources through borrowing or foreign aid, the same cannot be said for human capital. Notwithstanding of the size and pace of human capital investments, it will necessitate a fixed number of years (say five years for a primary high school or eight years for secondary education) to shape a generation of educated and skilled labor force. Another important distinction between physical infrastructure and human capital investments is that the former type of investment customarily requires one-time capital expenditures while the latter category enjoins investments on an interminable basis. For instance, once a hydroelectric dam project is completed, it is expected to generate electricity for a long time without entailing future heavy capital expenses. On the other hand, to mould a generation of educated workers will entail investments in human capital on an incessant basis. Thus, the return of the social sector investment is a long term continuous proposition and, therefore, its affiliation with economic growth and development should be delved and analyzed within a framework which has a longer perspective. This proposition is also empirically substantiated by the author for Pakistan in two other earlier studies (Pasha, Hassan et al, 1996a, and 1996b). Based on a large, over 200 equations dynamic econometric model of Pakistan, the findings of these studies insinuated that a shift in the investment priority to social development (i. . , education sector) would entail enduring positive impact on economic growth but with long lags of about eight years. The results of the studies further suggested that, in the short to medium term, the impact of human capital investment on economic growth for the country may not be noticeable; however, after the critical time period of eight years the economic growth for the country will be substantial and long-lasting. CONC LUSION How relevant is this study to public policy? First of all, the study empirically found out that in the past decade, among other things, the east African nations broad based healthy human capital (such Kenya and Tanzania) grew faster than the ones with less human capital investment (such as Uganda), where the elements of human health were missing. Thus, the empirical results in this study corroborated the premise that there is an important link between healthy human capital and rapid economic development of any country. This link can be illustrated mathematically by deriving the cob Douglas function and modifying it to include the aspect of human capital. In this sense, we take a country’s GDP represented by its output Q as a function of labor, human capital and physical capital. The function is represented by the linear equation; Q=Af (L,Kp,Kh): where Kp refers to physical capital and Kh refers to human capital. Therefore, output is directly related to human capital, just as the results of our study have shown. Secondly, the study also found that, under similar economic Predicaments with comparable per capita, Kenya and Tanzania were investing far more in human capital and health sectors on a per capita basis than Uganda. This result substantiated the point that it is the commitment and priority of a nation rather than other economic factors alone that led to more economic growth and development in Kenya and Tanzania as compared to Uganda. Even when they were all equally endowed with resources, and in fact Uganda was doing better in earlier years than Tanzania in terms of GDP per capita, but is now lagging behind. Thirdly, it is important to acknowledge the fact that there is a distinction between investments in human capital versus physical capital. The finding of the study, in this context, upholds the view that, while it is possible to cut down the gestation period of physical infrastructure the same outcome, however, may not be possible for human capital investment. Unlike physical infrastructure investment, human capital development investment is a long term as well as continuous proposition. Commitment and public policy are very simple and unpretentious. In the 1990s, most countries in the east Africa were remarkably analogous in terms of their economic development. However, at the dawn of the new millennium, although Kenya and Tanzania have made some economic progress, these countries are still attributed to their earlier copious investments made in human capital. What policy options and choices are available to the Uganda under the prevailing circumstances to improve economic development and to catch up with the other east African countries? It is the view of the author that it will have to adopt similar policy options that Kenya and Tanzania did in the 1960s – that is, to deeply commit and heavily invest in human capital development. This study has shown that there is no shortcut procurable in terms of educating the masses of a nation and in the event these countries demonstrate any laxity in building up a broad human capital base sooner than later. This is likely to be a recipe of postponing the impending quagmire to a future date. REFERENCES Hafiz Pasha, M. Aynul Hasan, Aisha Ghaus and M. Ajaz Rasheed, Pakistan†, Pakistan Development Review – 579. , 1996b. â€Å"An integrated planning model and expenditure on social development: the case of Pakistan,† 2) Romer, Paul, 1986. Increasing returns and long-term capital†, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, pp. 1002-1020. Wishart, M. D. , Principles of Microeconomics, 4e, 2005. Stamford, Thomson publishing. Robert, L. H. , The Economic Problem, 2e, 1970. New Jersey, Englewood. http//:www. ciafactbook. com http//:www. gisdevelopment. net Republic of Kenya (1965). African Socialism and its Application to Planning in Kenya, Nairobi. Governmen t press. Todaro, M. P. , Latest edition, Introduction to Economics for a Developing World. Oxford. Chapter 24. Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Introduction Our research topic is to analyze the relationship between human capital and economic growth. Economic growths important determinant are physical capital, labor and human capital. But from the recent trend of world economic growth, we found that human capital is playing a key role by taking the place of material capital and labor. Human capital is intimately related to growth as it increases the nation's capacity to produce goods and services. It also creates more Job opportunities and lifts the living standards of a country through increase in income levels.Human apital deals with individuals who learn special skills and knowledge trough education at school, training and experience in the labor market (Barro et al, 2000). However, Economic growth refers to the increase in the amount of the goods and services produced by an economy over time Cones, 1996). As a result of their skills and education, productivity level would increase because educated workers would work at a faster pace than less educated workers Human capital refers to the knowledge and skills embodied in people.It is widely recognized that some types of human capital are obtained through experience or nteractions with others and with formal education. Human capital is intimately related to the economic growth. Masses believe that capital means a bank account, stock or factory plants in the industrial area. These are also a type of capital that they are assets that increase income and other useful outputs over long periods of time. But such tangible forms of capital are not the only type of capital.There is another very important type of capital known as human capital. It implies to Schooling, a computer training course, expenditures on medical care, and lectures on the virtues f punctuality, expertise and honesty. It is because these factors are also contributing to raise earnings, improve health, or over all increasing the economic growth rate. Therefore, economists regard spending o n training, medical care, education and so on as investments in human capital.They are called human capital because people cannot be separated from their knowledge, skills, health, or values in the way they can be separated from their financial and physical assets. The notion of human capital arose out of the awareness that physical capital alone was not enough to explain long term growth. Many social indicators such as educational enrolments and life expectancy became combined in a common term: human capital. Often, human capital is implicitly referred to as formal and informal education.Yet, it can also contain factors such as the costs of raising children, health costs, and ability. Significance Economic gr n depends on many tactors such as the quantity and quality ot education, how education can impact on fertility rate, government policies to sustain incentives for human capital, a reduction in the cost of technology adoption and increase expenditure on education. Education and other aspects of human capital is important to economic growth because more educated individuals tend to have higher employment rate and earnings and produce more output relative to those who are less educated.Education is considered as a positive investment that allows individuals to be equipped with knowledge and skills that can improve their employability and productive capacities that would lead to higher earnings in the future and hence, economic growth. Moreover, it has shown that it is not only the amount of formal education that matters, but also that the type of knowledge ossessed by labor in a region also plays a key role in determining the level of economic activity.There are various type of education having there own effect on the economic growth such as skilled based education primary education specialized education higher education and education to develop entrepreneur skills, the more the entrepreneurs are in a country, more the business will flourish in that country . As a result, the countrys economy will rapidly grow. The continuing growth in per capita incomes of many countries during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries is partly due to the expansion of scientific and echnical knowledge that raises the productivity of labor and other inputs in production.And the increasing reliance of industry on sophisticated knowledge greatly enhances the value of education, technical schooling, on-the-Job training, and other human capital. New technological advances clearly are of little value to countries that have very few skilled workers who know how to use them. Investment in human capital is long term as compare to the investment on physical capital. It is also a continuous process unlike investment on physical capital. But the outcome of human capital is much greater than other investment. In past decades the healthy human capital countries grew faster than the one where these factors were missing.Economic growth closely depends on the synergies between new knowledge and human capital, which is why large increases in education and training have accompanied major advances in technological knowledge in all countries that have achieved significant economic growth. The outstanding economic records of Japan, Taiwan, and other Asian economies in recent decades dramatically illustrate the importance of human capital to growth. We are going to support the positive orrelation of human capital and economic development by reference on some previous conducted researches.Maudos, Pastor and Serrano aimed to find the role of human capital in the productivity gains of OECD countries form 1965-1990. There research supports the correlation of human capital and economic growth. Their findings suggest a positive the link between human capital and economic development. They concluded that human capital not only is an additional input in the production formula but also is a catalyst for technical change. Thus, the estimation of a stochastic tran slog production unction shows a statistically significant product elasticity of human capital, and non- parametric techniques confirm its significance as input.Xu, Qi came to conclusion in the research conducted in 2008 that human capital is contributing towards Total factor production (TFP), which is contributes directly to economic development. They concluded that human capital had lower impact in technologically strong provinces compared technologically backward provinces. We have seen that human capital have an impact on the growth rate. But there is various composition of human capital. Various composition of human capital has different impact on the economic growth. Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Our research topic is to analyze the relationship between human capital and economic growth. Economic growths important determinant are physical capital, labor and human capital. But from the recent trend of world economic growth, we found that human capital is playing a key role by taking the place of material capital and labor. Human capital is intimately related to growth as it increases the nation’s capacity to produce goods and services. It also creates more job opportunities and lifts the living standards of a country through increase in income levels.Human capital deals with individuals who learn special skills and knowledge trough education at school, training and experience in the labor market (Barro et al, 2000). However, Economic growth refers to the increase in the amount of the goods and services produced by an economy over time (Jones, 1996). As a result of their skills and education, productivity level would increase because educated workers would work at a fast er pace than less educated workersHuman capital refers to the knowledge and skills embodied in people. It is widely recognized that some types of human capital are obtained through experience or interactions with others and with formal education. Human capital is intimately related to the economic growth. Masses believe that capital means a bank account, stock or factory plants in the industrial area. These are also a type of capital that they are assets that increase income and other useful outputs over long periods of time. But such tangible forms of capital are not the only type of capital.There is another very important type of capital known as human capital. It implies to Schooling, a computer training course, expenditures on medical care, and lectures on the virtues of punctuality, expertise and honesty. It is because these factors are also contributing to raise earnings, improve health, or over all increasing the economic growth rate. Therefore, economists regard spending on training, medical care, education and so on as investments in human capital. They are called human capital because people cannot be separated from their knowledge, skills, health, or values in the way they can be  separated from their financial and physical assets.The notion of human capital arose out of the awareness that physical capital alone was not enough to explain long term growth. Many social indicators such as educational enrolments and life expectancy became combined in a common term: human capital. Often, human capital is implicitly referred to as formal and informal education. Yet, it can also contain factors such as the costs of raising children, health costs, and ability.SignificanceEconomic growth depends on many factors such as the quantity and quality of education, how education can impact on fertility rate, government policies to sustain incentives for human capital, a reduction in the cost of technology adoption and increase expenditure on education. Education a nd other aspects of human capital is important to economic growth because more educated individuals tend to have higher employment rate and earnings and produce more output relative to those who are less educated.Education is considered as a positive investment that allows individuals to be equipped with knowledge and skills that can improve their employability and productive capacities that would lead to higher earnings in the future and hence, economic growth. Moreover, it has shown that it is not only the amount of formal education that matters, but also that the type of knowledge possessed by labor in a region also plays a key role in determining the level of economic activity.There are various type of education having there own effect on the economic growth such as skilled based education primary education specialized education higher education and education to develop entrepreneur skills, the more the entrepreneurs are in a country, more the business will flourish in that coun try. As a result, the country’s economy will rapidly grow.The continuing growth in per capita incomes of many countries during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries is partly due to the expansion of scientific and technical knowledge that raises the productivity of labor and other inputs in production. And the increasing reliance of industry on sophisticated knowledge greatly enhances the value of education, technical  schooling, on-the-job training, and other human capital.New technological advances clearly are of little value to countries that have very few skilled workers who know how to use them. Investment in human capital is long term as compare to the investment on physical capital. It is also a continuous process unlike investment on physical capital. But the outcome of human capital is much greater than other investment. In past decades the healthy human capital countries grew faster than the one where these factors were missing. Economic growth closely depends on the synergies between new knowledge and human capital, which is why large increases in education and training have accompanied major advances in technological knowledge in all countries that have achieved significant economic growth.The outstanding economic records of Japan, Taiwan, and other Asian economies in recent decades dramatically illustrate the importance of human capital to growth. We are going to support the positive correlation of human capital and economic development by reference on some previous conducted researches.Maudos, Pastor and Serrano aimed to find the role of human capital in the productivity gains of OECD countries form 1965-1990. There research supports the correlation of human capital and economic growth. Their findings suggest a positive the link between human capital and economic development. They concluded that human capital not only is an additional input in the production formula but also is a catalyst for technical change.Thus, the estimation of a s tochastic translog production function shows a statistically significant product elasticity of human capital, and non-parametric techniques confirm its significance as input. Xu, Lai, and Qi came to conclusion in the research conducted in 2008 that human capital is contributing towards Total factor production (TFP), which is contributes directly to economic development. They concluded that human capital had lower impact in technologically strong provinces compared technologically backward provinces.We have seen that human capital have an impact on the growth rate. But there is various composition of human capital. Various composition of human capital has different impact on the economic growth. There can be different composition of human capital agriculture human capital (AGR); high-tech  human capital (TECH); business and service human capital (SERVICE); the humanities human capital (HUMAN); and health and welfare human capital (HEALTH). These divisions are done by Chun-li Tsai, Ming-Cheng Hung, and Kevin Harriott in their research conducted in 2010. They concluded that, secondary education is a large contributor to economic growth in developing countries than it is in developed countries.However, they find tertiary education also plays an important role in economic growth equally for both developing and developed countries. The findings also indicate high-tech human capital is positively correlated with economic growth. It indicates that a country should promote greater enrolment in high-tech fields of study, that is, the percentage of tertiary graduates in science, engineering, mathematics and computer science is an important indicator of high-quality labor-force. It provides skilled and specialized labor to work with hi technology.Daren A. Conrad conducted a research on four Caribbean countries; he divided them in two groups according to the nature of the development. he concluded that countries with high development status in Caribbean which are Barbado s and Trinidad & Tobago. The human capital contribution in these countries is high towards economic development in all sectors. However, in less developed countries which includes (Guyana and Jamaica), the human capital contribution is low in tertiary sector because in these countries the human capital is not very much developed because of lack of resources on education compared o developed countries. In the end this research paper does give concrete reasons of dependency of economic development on human capital.Teixeira and Fortuna (2004) in their research paper made a conclusion that the main estimation results emphasize that human capital stock and internal innovation capability (internal stock of knowledge) are important in explaining Portuguese productivity during the period of study which is from 1960 to 2000.Nazneen ahmed and Joseph French had shed light on the casual relationship between growth rate and human capital in developing countries such as Bangladesh. Their studied the Bangladesh economic growth in relation with its human capital. Bangladesh, like other developing nations, depends upon  production processes that are largely labor intensive. according to Nazneen Ahmad and Joseph French, These results indicates that increases in human capital have a propensity to follow increases in per capita GDP and at the current state of the economy, emphasis on secondary and higher secondary education should be a priority for Bangladesh.Secondary and higher secondary education are imperative because of the labor-intensive nature of the Bangladeshi economy. Again this research gives importance to the composition of human capital and type of education imparted to the labor. Skills acquired from secondary and higher secondary levels of education are in utmost demand and as their results show, contribute considerably to economic growth in Bangladesh.Musila Jacob and Belassi Walid in their research emphasized on the fact that government expenditure on the huma n capital can be an important determinant to analyze this relationship of human capital and economic growth. Government expenditure on education would also have an impact on the economic growth. Moreover investment on growth can be represented as the investment on the human capital. As government will spend more on educating the human capital, more will be the skilled labor to positively contribute towards the economic growth of the country. Author investigated that the increase the government expenditure on the education would increase the economic growth. That the average education expenditure per worker positively correlates with the economic growth.LR test indicate that education expenditure in the model are weakly exogenous, suggesting therefore, that they drive economic growth. Government expenditure on education in the long term investment to increases the economic growth of the country. This research clearly proves the point that how human capital contributes to economic gro wth.Ruth Judson in 1998 tried to find answers to two questions. First, does investment in education help growth; second, does the allocation of investment in education matter? He came to conclusion that if allocation is the done in organized manner in different levels of education, then countries can gain more from human capital.He is trying to make a point that that human capital speeds up the economic development so it is  necessary that one develops them in best possible manner by allocating appropriate investment in different levels of education. He says that basic education is most important as it lays foundation for further education, so it can be concluded that, countries should emphasis greatly on basic education in order to gain maximum for human capital as human capital is catalyst for economic growth.â€Å"Education is empowerment. It is the key to establishing and reinforcing democracy, and development, which is both sustainable and humane. It is also the only avenue for a lasting peace founded upon the mutual respect and social justice. Indeed, in a world in which creativity and knowledge play an ever-greater role, the right education is nothing less than the right to participate in the modern world.†(UNESCO, 1998).Vladmir tries to prove this relation by using two models. He uses Lucas model and Nelson-Phelps approach. The Lucas model establishes that the driving force behind economic growth is the rate of accumulation of human capital. On the other hand, the Nelson–Phelps approach considers that high levels of human capital increase the capacity of individuals to innovate (by discovering new technology) or to adopt new technology. Thus, again it can be said that human capital is one of the major pillar of economic development.Abel J.R and Todd M.Gabe in their research prove empirically the dependence of economic growth on human capital. By using educational attainment as an indicator of human capital, it is found that a 1 percenta ge point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with about a 2% increase in US metropolitan area GDP per capita.ConclusionThrough above discussion it can be clearly claimed that there is a positive relationship between human capital and economic development. They both are directly proportional to each other; weak human capital would slow down the economic growth. On the other hand, strong human capital would accelerate  the economic growth. Human capital is very important to nation’s development and it cannot be neglected.Neglect of human capital would negatively impact the economic growth. Furthermore, it can be said that it is important to invest on basic education as it lays foundation for other important skills and further education. Human capital is a resource on which countries build and it should be polished as economic growth is dependent on skilled human capital.